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Mariners-Rays

I just want to make sure everyone realizes that I predicted the Rays would finish 18 games ahead of the Mariners, and after 80 games the Rays are 18 games ahead of the Mariners.

I do have a hard time bragging about this too much, because this is really the only prediction I made this year that seems to be going right.

Plus, it would not be incredible for the Mariners to not suck quite this much in the second half, or for the Rays to not be quite this good in the second half.

City Philadelphia

Favorite Team Cubs

Re: Mariners-Rays

I would be bragging about that prediction had I made it.

I would also give Eric props for not bragging about his Surprise pick for the NL and disappointment pick for the AL if he posted here regularly.

Re: Mariners-Rays

Well I could say something about my NL Surprise player and my AL Disappointing player and I would if all the rest of my picks weren't so awful (Francouer I'm looking right at you buddy).

Re: Mariners-Rays

Picking how teams are going to turn out is a matter of assessment, evaluation, and luck.

Picking disappointing and surprising players is a bit more impressive, because it involves a lot more luck but also an ability to pick one player out of about 350 who is suddenly going to diverge from his career performance to this point.

Ryan Church was brilliant, and would be one of the all time great picks had he not gotten hurt. Now, if he can return to the player he was before injury, brilliant once again.

If the Church pick was brilliant, the Blanton pick is almost kind of eerie, when you consider how dead-on your pick is right now. Before the season, I would have guessed that Blanton would be one of the few bright spots, not one of the few dull spots.

Eric obviously nailed Ryan Theriot and Dontrelle Willis, but maybe I am less inclined to be hugely impressed with those because a) Ryan Theriot is probably Eric's favorite player right now, and b) I think we all knew what to expect from Dontrelle.

Well, maybe his decline was more precipitous than we could have expected. Okay, bravo!

Keep in mind Eric also picked Johan Santana who, despite being good compared to mortals, has not been the superman I expected this year. Weird that he suddenly can't stop giving up homeruns.

I would like to give "self-props" to myself for going with Fausto Carmona as the disappointing player and Josh Hamilton as the surprising player in the AL. Of course, my continued adoration of Dave Bush probably negates any props in this category.

City Philadelphia

Favorite Team Cubs

Re: Mariners-Rays

I think Eric might find jealousy in the fact that I'm friends with Ryan Theriot's cousin. He's a short, educated, quick-witted, energetic, quirky party kid who may be half a foot shorter than Ryan.

Re: Mariners-Rays

Chuech is a surprise player in that I did not even realize he was having that good of a season. Anyone else notice how similar his 2006 and 2008 numbers look right now?

Re: Mariners-Rays

Joe Blanton -

2006 - 194.1 IP, 241 H - 11.16/9 IP - .309 BAA - 4.95 K/9
2007 - 230.0 IP, 240 H - 9.39 H/9 - .269 BAA - 5.47 K/9
2008 - 114.0 IP, 130 H - 10.26 H/9 - .283 BAA - 4.34 K/9
Career - 747.2 IP, 795 H/9 - 9.57 H/9 - .273 BAA - 5.10 K/9

I predicted 252 hits allowed this year. He’s on pace to give up 238. However he may yet exceed that total and that’s because if his career splits are any indication, sadly, he’s already done his best pitching.

Career
1st half - 3.71 ERA/1.24 WHIP/.257 BAA
2nd half - 4.85 ERA/1.43 WHIP/.291 BAA

Re: Mariners-Rays

Blanton gets dropped from the Athletics' rotation before he gives up 250 hits. Still, a very good call so far on your part.

Re: Mariners-Rays

Hey, if you're still trying to look at Francouer and can't find him, here's why.

Re: Mariners-Rays

Man anyone who thought he was gonna have a good year must've been outta there minds!

Oh wait a second....um.....never mind.

Re: Mariners-Rays

As of August 4th, the Rays now have as many wins as they did last year.

Our initial dispute involved the unlikeliness of the Rays improving by 25 or more games.

As of today, the Rays are 22 games over .500 and need to win 25 out of 52 games to have 25 more wins than last season.

City Chicago

Favorite Team Royals

Re: Mariners-Rays

As of yesterday, August 18, 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays are 30 games ahead of the Seattle Mariners.

City Philadelphia

Favorite Team Cubs

Re: Mariners-Rays

September 21, 2008

The Rays have clinched a playoff spot and are currently 92-61, which is 26 games better than last year.

City Philadelphia

Favorite Team Cubs

Re: Mariners-Rays

So the Rays finished with 36 more wins than the Mariners this year. Wild.

That is exactly twice as many more than I thought they would finish ahead.

City Philadelphia

Favorite Team Cubs

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